Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
